Pulls & odds

How odds work#

Every capsule holds a real NFT. There are no duds.

Each collection has one value. An NFT's weight is one over the square root of its value, so cheaper NFTs come out more often: a Doge Capital NFT (0.3 SOL) is about 6× as likely as a Mad Lads (11.36 SOL).

weight   = 1 / √value
P(NFT)   = weight / Σ weights
P(tier)  = Σ P(NFT) in that tier
EV       = Σ P(NFT) × value

Tiers are labels. Their odds follow from what is inside the machine, never from a setting, and a tier with nothing drawable is hidden.

Why this price#

A pull costs what an average capsule is worth, plus the real cost of buying a replacement, plus 10%: 5% creator, 4% buyback & burn, 1% Hiku. There is no fixed price.

price = EV × (1 + restock cost + 10% + surge)

The restock cost is what the machine really pays in marketplace fees and royalties to buy a replacement, measured on every purchase (2%–10%). It is spent on NFTs, never burned. Pulls that strip cheap capsules raise the price a little; restocks bring it back.

One method for every machine#

Every machine and the Global pack price with this one method: the same formula, the same global mix and the same parameters. A creator chooses collections and a trading fee, never how pulls are priced.

• Two machines holding the same NFTs charge the same price and show the same odds.
• Prices can be compared across machines: a difference always comes from what is inside.
• No creator can tilt a machine toward jackpots or cheap pulls to draw players in.
• The trading fee is the token's own. It fills the machine and never changes the pull price.

Worked example#

A machine with 5 real collections and 35 NFTs, stocked to the global mix. Floors from OpenSea, 29 Sep 2026.

Example machineSurgePrice moving

Price per pull

1.0039 SOL

Average capsule

0.8729 SOL

Legendary2.64%1 in 38Rare14.48%1 in 7Common82.88%

Mad Lads

Legendary · 4 NFTs at 11.36 SOL

2.64%

SMB Gen3

Rare · 4 NFTs at 2.69 SOL

5.42%

Boryoku Dragonz

Rare · 5 NFTs at 1.51 SOL

9.06%

Cets

Common · 10 NFTs at 0.43 SOL

34.06%

Doge Capital

Common · 12 NFTs at 0.3 SOL

48.82%

Each Doge Capital NFT is about 6× as likely as each Mad Lads.

Orders#

Pull x1, x5 or x10. Each capsule is priced at the moment it is drawn, so on the example machine an x10 costs about 8% more than ten times the x1 price. Ten x1 pulls in a row cost the same.

An order is at most x10 and at most 25% of the NFTs available. With fewer than 5 available the machine shows Restocking.

Price lock#

Your pull locks a maximum price per capsule. Each capsule is charged its price at settlement, never more than your maximum, and the difference comes back.

Refunds#

Charged capsule

Your maximum minus its price.

Voided capsule

Your whole maximum, when its price is above it, nothing is drawable, or its average value is below the minimum you set.

No randomness

After about a minute, anyone can expire the request. Everything you escrowed comes back.

Missing prize

If a won NFT is frozen or gone at claim, its price is refunded from the restock pot.

Randomness fee

Never refunded.

Surge#

When a machine is drained faster than it restocks, the price rises by 0.2 × the share of NFTs taken in the last one to two hours, up to +10%. The surge goes to restocking, so bursts pay for their own refill. Odds don't change.

Fees#